Can Job Turnover be Predicted?
Robert Cenek
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Few readers would say no, and yes would be a safe bet at Caesars Sports Book – but it’s also a “take it to the bank bet” that most people rely on hunches or intuition when selecting employees.
It’s no secret: most recruiters have “gut-level” conclusions on what they see as risk factors for turnover. These are not revelational, and should be of no surprise to the reader. For example, people who job hop have a higher likelihood of being short timers as their new destination (Biderman, Davison, Swartout and Newsome, 2003).
The conventional wisdom is that job dissatisfaction drives employee turnover. While this is certainly true in many instances, the typical employee’s decision-making process for seeking new surroundings involves a constellation of factors and tends to follow a myriad of different paths, few of which are linear in nature or design. In short, turnover is complicated, and more nebulous than presented through the classic “Seven Observable Reasons Employees Leave” explanation.
In spite of this complexity, there’s a strong yet frequently overlooked body of knowledge suggesting that some employees can have a psychological predisposition for more frequent job movement – and this can be predicted.
Fairly recent research has provided evidence that personality traits (Boudreau, Boswell, Judge, & Bretz, 2001; Parks & Waldo, 1999) , and cognitive ability (Boudreau et al., 2001) are predictive of turnover. An examination of voluntary turnover among male and female police officers (Drew, 2003) concluded that personality is predictive of voluntary separation.
Valid assessment tools can help predict whether a potential new hire may exit early. Some of the firms hawking these instruments are solid and reputable; others have spotty validation work underlying their product. Caveat emptor applies.
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Response: More on Recruitment MethodsFollowing on from an earlier post, Robert Cenek raises the question 'Can Job Turnover be Predicted?'To me, it seems that Robert's line of thinking runs in parrell to the earlier post, particulalry when he writes;Can Job Turnover be Predicted...
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You can however make predictions of groups. In the workplace, turnover prediction mapping can done to identify groups or departments where future turnover is likely. By comparing employee survey ratings with exit interview ratings you can begin to get a picture of where future employee turnover can be expected.
A white paper on employee turnover prediction mapping is available here:
http://www.nobscot.com/about/turnover_prediction_mapping.cfm
My post was referencing pre-employment assessments, and the methodology and practices are fundamentally different than predicting turnover with current employees. The point of my post, and recent research, is that the probability of turnover can in fact be predicted with reasonable statistical accuracy for prospective new hires.
Robert Edward Cenek
Thanks for posting!
Why do copmanies demand such loyalty but behave like such cheapskates. This is the market economy that corporate America is fond of; well then that cuts both ways